Calculate the true expected value of any casino bonus given its wagering requirement and the house edge during play-through. Shows how many bets you need to clear the wagering and what you can expect to keep after edge friction.
A casino bonus comes with a "wagering requirement" (also called playthrough or rollover). It\'s a multiplier on the bonus amount: you must wager that amount × the multiplier before the bonus converts to withdrawable real balance. For example, a $25 bonus with 10× wagering means you must wager $250 total before the bonus is yours.
Wagering requirements exist for two reasons: 1) They prevent free-bonus-to-instant-withdrawal arbitrage. Without wagering, bonuses would just be free money to flip into withdrawal. 2) They erode the bonus value through house-edge friction over the wagering volume. The casino expects to recoup part of the bonus through edge bleed.
Net expected value of a bonus = bonus amount × (1 - edge × wagering_multiplier).
The break-even wagering multiplier is 1 / edge. At 5% edge, anything above 20× wagering is expected-negative. At 20% edge (AgentBet default), anything above 5× is expected-negative.
EV is the long-run average. In practice, individual sessions vary wildly. You might play through a 10× wagering at 20% edge and finish ahead — the math doesn\'t prevent it, it just says you shouldn\'t expect it. Conversely, you might finish way behind. The smaller your typical bet relative to the bonus, the closer you get to expectation; the bigger your bets, the more variance dominates.
Default first-deposit bonus: 100% match up to $25, 10× wagering. So depositing $25 gets you $25 bonus, requiring $250 wagered before conversion. At AgentBet\'s default 20% house edge, the expected friction is ~$50 — the bonus is expected to be net-negative for the player on average, but positive variance can swing it favorable for some sessions.
Bonus bets always deduct bonus balance first. Wins from bonus-funded bets stay in bonus (no leak to real). This means the wagering requirement actually counts: every bet you place during play-through subtracts from the wagering needed.
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